Monday 17 June 2013

Some forex, gold and 2 ETFs

British pound tried hard to break into the blue rising channel but failed today. The red hypothetical channel needs a hit and bounce to confirm.
Euro is in a solid uptrend shown in orange. It is consolidating now and any hit on the lower band is good long opportunity.
I have no updates on AUD as there is not much change since my last post. However, I can add that AUD shorts hit a new record recently which is in parallel with my long scenario. Dollar index channel in red is still in tact but Euro's uptrend is worrying for dollar's bullish case.
Gold is looking very weak here. I shamelessly stole the red support line from Jack at channelsandpatterns. That support has five hits until today which I showed in the second chart. The sixth one is just around the corner. If that support fails we can expect a big drop from here as a continuation of this major correction. The blue support may be the next stop for gold but that's still too far to think right now.
I do not post on ETFs but there are two long candidates here that hit the eye. The first one is VIXS which is a leveraged ETF connected to VIX. It broke up the resistance coming from 2011. This may be the start of something big. Although I posted bullish charts on S&P and RUT recently, VIXS chart tells me that complacency is fading away in the stock markets. Just sayin...
The second ETF is DBA which follows the DB agricultural index. There is a declining but very exhausted channel with positive divergences in many time frames. Worth a watch for a long position when it breaks up. Hope it helps.

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