Saturday 15 June 2013

Weekend update

I'm in the Far East away from home. My comfortable access to charts may be limited for the next 10 days. Starting with S&P, the channels are telling me that bull trend since November is getting weaker. There has been five hits on the red support. I have written in my previous posts that the golden touch is the fourth one but if that's not broken the sixth is the one to watch carefully. The stronger the support the faster it will drop once it breaks. Five hits makes it a very strong support. The orange channel still looks like a bull flag unless we hit the red support once more.
RUT looks bullish with only two hits on the red support. I usually do not count the multiple hits in April individually. There is only two hits at the upper band too but I doubt there will be another one if the S&P breaks down its own support. The blue declining channel's slope is very low which makes my bull flag opinion stronger.
British pound broke down the steep blue channel from my last post but now retesting the support. Usually these sort of steep channels break down but form an internal channel to hit their ultimate target. The red hypothetical channel can be a candidate to hit the broken 4 year orange support line.
Aussie broke up the red channel from my last post and now retesting the resistance for the second time. It may intrude a bit into the channel but to me this red channel is broken and a rising channel will be established soon. I would be surprised if the prices will come below 0.9380 before rising to at least 1.020.
WTI broke the red resistance. I expect higher prices towards the triangle resistance at 102 from my previous WTI post which is shown in orange.
It's been a while since I have posted on Coffee. I was expecting a bullish channel to start after breaking up the red declining channel. Despite weekly and daily positive divergences and a broken resistance, the prices kept on declining. The red channel's broken resistance have been tested 3 times with the last one two days ago. It looks deeply oversold and blue inner channel's support was also hit yesterday. I expect a bounce from here but a tight stop loss is not possible in my view. Maybe a small position with an ETF is a better way to trade coffee. 

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