Saturday 29 June 2013

Weekend update

Nasdaq Composite presents itself with clear support and resistance lines. The green resistance hit at the top was a very accurate turning point. The recent bottom coincided with the orange and blue support lines that makes it a strong medium term bottom. The next hit on the blue support will be the 4th and that's the one to be cautious about for a break down. In addition, the recent top's RSI indicates that a new top may have strong negative divergence on the weekly and the daily charts similar to the 2010 top which would be a great shorting opportunity. Until then, I consider this as the last wave up with the target of 3537 and the rising support currently is at 3332.
Gold bounced right at the bottom of the green and orange channels. The ellipses locate the pillars of these two strong channels and until they broke up we cannot expect the widely anticipated bull market to continue. The red and blue support lines are shown in my previous gold posts so I will not show them again.

Aussie dollar's red declining channel is still in charge. There is positive divergence on the RSI and it just hit the blue support line which makes it also a candidate for a triple bottom. There is very strong positive divergence on daily charts as well. 
The weekly Aussie chart indicates a possible reversal here with the red hypothetical rising channel support. In addition, last time RSI was this oversold was at the long term bottom in 2008 shown in blue. Furthermore, the shorts had reached a new record before last week. That record was probably broken again in this last leg down. Concluding, the reversal may be very near.
Last but not least is the British pound getting prepared for a bounce towards 1.58 but it has to break up the exhausted green declining channel first.

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