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Good ellipse chart for S&P...interesting indeed to see which way it goes.Just an added note on margin debt.March was not the first time its decreased in the last few years of course.I looked back and in 2011 we actually had a couple instances of consecutive monthly declines which at the time could ve been interpreted as a warning sign.The difference was margin debt in 2011 declined simultaneously with market corrections.Not in advance of(as in 2000 and 2007-08).We had a quick downdraft in march that MAY have been a factor in margin debt declining slightly.I guess the way I see it is if the market is going up while margin debt is declining precipitously(as in 2000 &2007).We could see a bounce back in margin debt for April rendering March as meaningless.Cheets.
Wanted to note that if we see margin debt drop for April while the equity markets are soaring...would be a sell signal as opposed to margin debt decling WHILE equities are correcting.big difference.
Thanks a lot for the updates. It sounds very tricky to trade with margin debt from timing point of view. I reckon it is more like a confirmation rather than timing the trades. A close below 1825 would be an alarming sell signal for my money.
Good ellipse chart for S&P...interesting indeed to see which way it goes.Just an added note on margin debt.March was not the first time its decreased in the last few years of course.I looked back and in 2011 we actually had a couple instances of consecutive monthly declines which at the time could ve been interpreted as a warning sign.The difference was margin debt in 2011 declined simultaneously with market corrections.Not in advance of(as in 2000 and 2007-08).We had a quick downdraft in march that MAY have been a factor in margin debt declining slightly.I guess the way I see it is if the market is going up while margin debt is declining precipitously(as in 2000 &2007).We could see a bounce back in margin debt for April rendering March as meaningless.Cheets.
ReplyDeleteWanted to note that if we see margin debt drop for April while the equity markets are soaring...would be a sell signal as opposed to margin debt decling WHILE equities are correcting.big difference.
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot for the updates. It sounds very tricky to trade with margin debt from timing point of view. I reckon it is more like a confirmation rather than timing the trades. A close below 1825 would be an alarming sell signal for my money.
ReplyDelete