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This market has defied almost all bearish calls. I'm very convinced that we will not get another 2008 style crash, at least not soon, but a 10-20% decline is inevitable. My first SP chart's resistance shows 1950-55 for a reversal.
Last summer, I threw in the towel on the 'doomer bear' crash scenario. You know the, sp'600..500..400s.
At the time, I even taunted a few with 'maybe we'll never go <sp'1500. EVER again'. I know I really made a lot of my readers angry with that consideration.
...here we are...another 400pts higher...and I'm still seeing the sp'600..500s being touted by some.
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Would you agree, the central banks would go nuclear with the PRINT button if we see a 15/20% equity drop later this year?
After all, would they let all their 'good work' unravel, or would they come to the rescue, and starting buying more real assets, with more money printed out of nowhere?
Here is something..and it remains a primary guess of mine for the next few years...the Fed will eventually start buying up Student loan debt..
..and you know the masses would support it. Hell, maybe they'd even want to give Yellen the congressional medal of honor?
Buying student debt. Yes I reckon they will buy anything for sale :) Does it really solve problems? It seems so. But why is everyone so depressed. Why is there no real growth? Why are we still at the edge of the next recession? This experiment will end badly. Till then, we should just go with the flow.
This market has defied almost all bearish calls. I'm very convinced that we will not get another 2008 style crash, at least not soon, but a 10-20% decline is inevitable. My first SP chart's resistance shows 1950-55 for a reversal.
ReplyDeleteLast summer, I threw in the towel on the 'doomer bear' crash scenario. You know the, sp'600..500..400s.
ReplyDeleteAt the time, I even taunted a few with 'maybe we'll never go <sp'1500. EVER again'. I know I really made a lot of my readers angry with that consideration.
...here we are...another 400pts higher...and I'm still seeing the sp'600..500s being touted by some.
-
Would you agree, the central banks would go nuclear with the PRINT button if we see a 15/20% equity drop later this year?
After all, would they let all their 'good work' unravel, or would they come to the rescue, and starting buying more real assets, with more money printed out of nowhere?
Here is something..and it remains a primary guess of mine for the next few years...the Fed will eventually start buying up Student loan debt..
..and you know the masses would support it. Hell, maybe they'd even want to give Yellen the congressional medal of honor?
no update for Aussie?
ReplyDelete'cause not much changed since my last post on Aussie. Chopping around.
ReplyDeleteSPX closed in PRZ of a bearish deep crab pattern, target 1890, I'm risking a 10 point stop from SPX1948.4, let's see...
ReplyDeleteI reckon it will reverse 1951-52 and then come down 15-20 points maybe more.
ReplyDeleteBuying student debt. Yes I reckon they will buy anything for sale :) Does it really solve problems? It seems so. But why is everyone so depressed. Why is there no real growth? Why are we still at the edge of the next recession? This experiment will end badly. Till then, we should just go with the flow.
ReplyDelete